IP

Historical Earnings Profile: Beats Are Rare and Surprises Skew Negative

Over the last eight reported quarters, International Paper (IP) has beaten conventional earnings estimates only 3 out of 8 times, a 38% beat rate. Across the same window the average earnings surprise was -33.7%, meaning reported EPS has, on average, fallen meaningfully short of the published estimate. The most recent results illustrate how noisy that track record can be: on 2026-07-30 the company reported actual EPS of $0.04 versus an estimate of $-0.02992, a 233.7% positive surprise, yet the stock fell -5.38% the next day and recorded null% over the following five days. One quarter earlier, on 2026-04-30, a $0.15 actual EPS versus $0.1466 estimate (a 2.3% beat) produced a +4.4% one-day move and +8.74% over the next five sessions. In contrast, the 2026-01-29 report showed a $-0.08 actual EPS against a $0.28 estimate, a -128.6% miss, but the stock still rose 3.38% the next day and 13.77% over five days. The 2025-10-30 miss was even larger in percentage terms, with actual EPS of $-0.43 versus estimate $0.4684 (-191.8% surprise), producing a flat +0.03% next-day move and a -5.41% five-day decline. For IP, the headline beat-or-miss label has not reliably dictated the directional stock reaction.

Post-Earnings Drift and the Upward Historical Bias

Despite the negative average surprise, the average 5-day price move after earnings across the last eight quarters is 5.7%, with the drift classified as “up.” That average is supported by some very large post-event rallies, including the 2026-01-29 and 2026-04-30 five-day moves of +13.77% and +8.74%, while the most recent release produced a null% five-day drift and the 2025-10-30 release produced a -5.41% five-day drift. Heading into the next report scheduled for 2026-10-28 before the open, the published consensus EPS estimate is $0.3409, well above the $0.04 posted in July. As of the current snapshot, the stock is $41.51 with an RSI of 58.8 and a 50-day EMA of $37.83. The shares are trading above a rising 50-day EMA and the RSI sits near neutral territory, so the technical setup will be read alongside the fundamental release rather than leading it.

Options-Flow Dynamics and What a Disciplined Trader Watches

The options market around 2026-10-28 typically treats IP’s earnings as a discrete volatility event: implied volatility tends to expand into the report and compress afterward (the well-known “IV crush”) if the realized move does not exceed the premium baked into near-dated straddles. With the historical 5-day post-earnings drift at 5.7% up, options traders can compare the implied percentage move priced by at-the-money straddles against the historical average of roughly 5.7% and an equivalent dollar move of about $2.37 from the current $41.51 price. Flow skew—whether call volume is outpacing put volume or whether dealers are positioned for a larger downside move—can also reveal how the market is pricing risk relative to the official consensus EPS of $0.3409 and any unofficial consensus circulating in the flow. A disciplined trader usually monitors four things: the reported EPS number against the $0.3409 estimate and any guidance or commentary; the next-day price reaction relative to IP’s history of counterintuitive post-report moves; the five-day drift rather than the first-hour spike; and the behavior of implied volatility for options expiring shortly after the report. Because IP operates in the Basic Materials/Paper, Lumber & Forest Products sector, the tone on pulp prices, packaging demand, and input costs may move the stock as much as a narrow EPS beat or miss.

For a deeper dive into how institutional models, options positioning, and sector cross-currents are aligning ahead of the 2026-10-28 report, see the full institutional verdict on the platform.